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Great uncertainty in equity markets and currency, which direction to take?

Greece After the financial crisis is exploding in Ireland. This is the dominant factor in recent days has disturbed the sleep of the stock and currency traders.

at a time when the markets seemed well oriented, the exacerbation of problems of PIGS (or PIIGS ) marked a di controtendenza , anche per l'euro che dopo gli annunci di nuovi quantitative easing della Fed aveva ripreso il suo trend rialzista.

Ora si tratta di capire se si tratta di una nube passeggera o di un potenziale inversione di tendenza.

Noi propendiamo per la prima ipotesi , per i seguenti motivi:

1) FMI e UE sono già al lavoro per trovare una soluzione al problema irlandese, verso il cui sistema anche le banche inglesi sono molto esposte e quindi non è interesse di nessuno affossare.

2) il recente precedente greek, however, still not fully resolved, created the basis for a recurrence of interventions to support, without which it would open the door to the very serious accusation, for policy makers Europeans have used two lost and two measures.

3) since Bernanke has "rekindled the printer to make dollars," says as Jim Rogers that still has a little 'too much (in shades), the market liquidity Financial and insurance and some can not help but join the action as other activities, bonds and commodities, are so over-quoted by touching the risk bubble.

4) the prices of the shares are now cheaper than bonds. Just consider the dividends that are distributed the average of U.S. listed companies, in excess of about double the returns of bond coupons the same companies. When one is found in the same conditions, historically has always started a cycle of rising stock prices.

And the euro dollar exchange , whose correlation with the market trend is still valid, should continue its uptrend , pushed particularly by the spread of short-term rates for the single currency. In fact, the ' Euribor 3 months share just 1:04 against the 0:28 libor , fertile ground for lovers of carry trade, which speculate on the best return of liquidity using the opportunities offered by leverage.

also placing repeated and continuous money U.S. should create an effect depreciation on the cross, which is already showing signs of rebound after the clouds Irish momentarily obscured the view.

Warning But the Italian stock exchange , is suffering more than others, even for the political uncertainties. In fact, together with Spain and Portugal is the worst in Europe, having a negative performance in the last 12 months.

And judging by recent events, the economic and political landscape is far from rosy.

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forecast euro dollar exchange rate? Look at the interest rates in August

After year lows touched in June to 1.19, the euro has made a remarkable run against the dollar.

Let's summarize reasons.

problems that had burdened the euro, in particular the situation in Greece and the PIGS , although far from resolution, have just been buffered by the newfound willingness of policy makers not blow up the European single currency.

However if this will be stable over time we will see him since November 2011 when, in all likelihood, the governor of the Bundesbank Alex Weber pass at the helm of the ECB taking the place of Trichet .

The second aspect that is playing for the euro is due to improving the economic prospects of the EU , mostly in Germany for the rest because we are still back in conjunction with the risk for a relapse into recession in the U.S..

The third point that makes you want the markets to bet on the euro again regards statements the Federal Reserve , which seems determined to intervene with a new quantitative easing , or print money. And since with increasing quantities of a given product on the market its price resize the announcement of new liquidity traders are falling stocks dollars in the portfolio.

The fourth reason is probably the most crucial of all: differential between interest rates between the two currencies is increasing day by day . In fact, we find ourselves with a Euribor 3-month period has passed the psychological threshold of 1%, while the libor U.S. stable under the 0.30% sailing.

Historically, the spread between the rates was a crucial element in composition of the exchange ratio and a trend which, if not substantially change things, should continue, unless the big surprises we may find ourselves to the psychological threshold of 1, 50% and then even further, down to the absolute maximum of 1 .60.

The capital flow, the same risk, where they are better paid, the U.S. and now even more shabby look of old Europe.

So what determines the value of the euro-dollar cross bears more resemblance to a " Ciappa -no", where according to the event, operators indirazzano to the uniform that, from time to time, is considered less dangerous.

Meanwhile G20 Korea , breaking news, is proclaimed the "blood volume bbene " through the agreement on paper to avoid competitive devaluations of currencies.

We'll see, especially for problems that the strong yen is causing the Japanese exports, as this proclamation will be maintained in practice.