Friday, March 5, 2010

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Public debt in western countries is becoming a problem for the economy


After the post war economic boom, which lasted even with alternate events over 50 years, now the Western world has finally realized that it is dangerous to borrow too.
The problem is that the world's largest debtors are now sovereign states, at least some of these, U.S. in head with them are in good company, Europeans PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain) or PIIGS (many included in this group also Italy).
The paradox therefore is this: those who would pursue the common good, or the rulers who succeeded one another at the top of many Western democracies, have led their nations in a situation at least spinosa (for Greece in particular is a half disaster, as evidenced by the social tensions that are exploding violently ).
But what is the maximum level of debt, in this case public bearable?
E 'should be clear that there is a unique parameter, as the oft-quoted debt ratio assumes differing connotations based on different situations of overall state budgets and the economies of various countries.
In fact, like all borrowers, both private and public, that is the notion that their debts will be renewed and possibly increased in only one case: that is, provided that creditors maintain their strong confidence in the will and ability to repay.
E because trust is an attitude , escapes by definition a mathematical rules or ragioneristiche . This is the most delicate.
From this point of view of economic events and financial in particolare degli ultimi dieci anni, non costituiscono un buon viatico.
Per brevità, e poiché sono stati sotto gli occhi di tutti, non riprendiamo questi accadimenti, ma sappiamo che è successo praticamente di tutto, tra cui il primo vero e proprio default di uno stato sovrano, l' Argentina , tra l'altro non proprio periferico.
Così come le aziende falliscono allorquando le banche non rinnovano più la loro fiducia (cioè i fidi), qualunque debitore (stati sovrani compresi) va ko nel momento in cui non vengono sottoscritti i prestiti / bonds / securities issued or to be issued.
Here because, since September 2008 or as soon as the crisis erupted, central banks are anxious about the race between them to enter a impressive liquidity in the system, just to prevent deficiency currency (as well as trust) lead to withdrawal from investments from banks, companies and sovereign states.
The first ones were (almost all) substantially saved, most of the companies and also the challenge now moves to the target more, the states most vulnerable to debt.
But here the figures become astronomical and solutions are much less simple and straightforward.
In any case, the fact remains, extrema ratio, although the illuminating surprising indication contained the evangelical Our Father " forgive us our trespasses as we forgive our debtors ", but probably Jesus in His prayer was referring to something else.

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