Greece After the financial crisis is exploding in Ireland. This is the dominant factor in recent days has disturbed the sleep of the stock and currency traders. at a time when the markets seemed well oriented, the exacerbation of problems of PIGS (or PIIGS ) marked a di controtendenza , anche per l'euro che dopo gli annunci di nuovi quantitative easing della Fed aveva ripreso il suo trend rialzista.
Ora si tratta di capire se si tratta di una nube passeggera o di un potenziale inversione di tendenza.
Noi propendiamo per la prima ipotesi , per i seguenti motivi:
1) FMI e UE sono già al lavoro per trovare una soluzione al problema irlandese, verso il cui sistema anche le banche inglesi sono molto esposte e quindi non è interesse di nessuno affossare.
2) il recente precedente greek, however, still not fully resolved, created the basis for a recurrence of interventions to support, without which it would open the door to the very serious accusation, for policy makers Europeans have used two lost and two measures.
3) since Bernanke has "rekindled the printer to make dollars," says as Jim Rogers that still has a little 'too much (in shades), the market liquidity Financial and insurance and some can not help but join the action as other activities, bonds and commodities, are so over-quoted by touching the risk bubble.
4) the prices of the shares are now cheaper than bonds. Just consider the dividends that are distributed the average of U.S. listed companies, in excess of about double the returns of bond coupons the same companies. When one is found in the same conditions, historically has always started a cycle of rising stock prices.
And the euro dollar exchange , whose correlation with the market trend is still valid, should continue its uptrend , pushed particularly by the spread of short-term rates for the single currency. In fact, the ' Euribor 3 months share just 1:04 against the 0:28 libor , fertile ground for lovers of carry trade, which speculate on the best return of liquidity using the opportunities offered by leverage.
also placing repeated and continuous money U.S. should create an effect depreciation on the cross, which is already showing signs of rebound after the clouds Irish momentarily obscured the view.
Warning But the Italian stock exchange , is suffering more than others, even for the political uncertainties. In fact, together with Spain and Portugal is the worst in Europe, having a negative performance in the last 12 months.
And judging by recent events, the economic and political landscape is far from rosy.
